NewtonTalk.net July 2009 archive: Re: [NTLK] More MacPad Rumors

From: Ryan Vetter <physicalconstants_at_yahoo.ca>
Date: Mon Jul 13 2009 - 17:59:27 EDT

Hi Dana, et al.:

Well, for one, I am not trying to toot my own horn, but in an interview I did recently we discuss the tablet. You may already know all of the information that was discussed in that interview, or, maybe not. In short, Apple has been doing R&D on tablets since at least the early 1980s, and the Newton (Senior) was supposed to be a tablet itself. Later, a smaller variant won out and the Newton, as we know it, was born. Throughout much of the 1990s Apple kept researching tablets (i.e. Duo tablets, etc.). Then, they took what their tablet research team had been developing in 2004 and used that tech to make the iPhone: multi-touch device with custom OS. Also, there are many patent filings by Apple showing a tablet, and associated technologies. There's no question Apple has a large corpus of tablet research under their belts, and do intend to release a tablet. But as Apple has stated, technological challenges have impeded progress, in addition to a market
that has not been ready for it.

Since people have been using, more and more, touch-screen smartphones now for the past few years, the indoctrination period in regards to a touch/multi-touch tablet is over. People are now more than ready to accept tablets. But even just a few years ago, this was not the case. Look at us, we still use pseudo-typewriters (laptops), after all these years. People are slugs in terms of shifting to different paradigms of computing. And no doubt, tablets are a different paradigm. Not such a significant difference like Oblong's G-Speak, but still significant enough to cause the user to change the way they think about computing, and the ways in which information is input (not just keyboard entry, but speech, virtual keyboards and stylus driven).

First, lets address the question. Is there a market for tablet computers? Right now, there is, albeit a small one. I am sure we were asking the same about an iPhone before it was launched. The smartphone market was already pretty established though, so Apple came in swinging with advanced multi-touch technologies that blew everything else away, and then changed the industry. Demand for smartphones is now stronger than ever, and while not everyone buys an iPhone, it has no doubt turned people on to the idea of smartphones, and mobile computing. In short, its products like the iPhone that push industries to new heights of technology, competition and demand. Now everyone is racing to develop smaller, more mobile computers (netbook explosion, mobile microprocessor development - hottest area of computing right now, etc.).

With tablets, the market is not near as established as the smartphone market was when Apple released the iPhone. However, there at least is a foundation for tablet computers in place. When Apple released the iPod, it really created its own market. Sure, there was MP3 players, but the market was nascent and not well defined. Not only did Apple offer a superior device, but they coupled it with music services and easy syncability which the world ate up. So they created a market for MP3 players.

Since the tablet market is already somewhat established, Apple doesn't have to create a market. They just have to release something like the iPhone in terms of a device far ahead of what the competition has been making available. In this case, that shouldn't be too hard...

So, I look at an Apple tablet the same as I look at an iPhone: something that will reinvent a computing category in a somewhat established market.

Why aren't people buying tablets? We all know Bill Gates loves them, and thinks they are going to be taking off soon.

In some recent articles, one thing some pundits have been saying is that the tablet market has not caught on because the devices, and the software, are substandard. For instance, Windows Mobile/XP, which is on pretty much every tablet computer sold, takes a lot of criticism from users, and much deserved too. It is a horrible interface to combine with a tablet device.

Additionally, the offerings of tablet computers leave a lot of room for innovation and improvement. Users complain about poor battery life, poor design, etc. Sound familiar? Right, the same criticisms cell phone makers have received for years, and the same criticism Apple directed toward cell phones. As Steve Jobs said, they made the iPhone because cell phones were just too complicated to use and poorly designed. For me, that makes too much sense. I held off on buying a smartphone because I found them too byzantine to use. As soon as the iPhone was launched, I picked one up, and haven't looked back since.

Same thing for me and tablets. I have searched long and hard and there is nothing, I mean nothing, worthy of spending your money on.

So if Apple releases a tablet, I would expect the same thing to happen in comparison to the iPhone: a reinvention of a computing device that just works, and that everyone lusts over.

All the best,

Ryan

----- Original Message ----
From: Dana W Cook <dana.w.cook@gmail.com>
To: newtontalk@newtontalk.net
Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 1:10:26 PM
Subject: Re: [NTLK] More MacPad Rumors

Sorry, but I have to pipe in, even after sending in the "aye" as a
lurker. Maybe afterwards, some of you may relegate me back to lurk
status only.

I do not believe that there is "enough" demand to manufacture/produce
such a produce. If you examine the profile of the typical Mac
customer and the typical tablet user, I do not believe that these two
profiles are a match. I don't believe it is a match for either of the
two core Mac profiles; non-technical consumer; graphics heavy user.
So the question is whether or not Apple desires to go after an
additional market and continue afterwards to keep that market happy.
If a company is willing to sell a product to a new market but are not
willing to keep them happy afterwards (third party developers, apps,
hardware, etc) then it shouldn't be done in the first place lest folks
declare that Apple is abandoning them or not supporting them in the
first place.

Each of the 2000+ on this list might desire such a tablet, but that
doesn't seem to be the case regarding tablet sales. I just located an
article that indicated that Acer's tablet sales are high compared to
other vendors and that their tablet sales are 2 to 4% of their laptop
sales. Wow. Therefore, even though many on the list would jump at
the chance for a reasonably priced tablet, the demand just isn't there.

The market that is highly contested now is the netbook market which,
according to a Fortune 500 article, should reach 22 million units
shipped and that that number is currently eating into Apple's market
share. I was under the impression that the expensive MacBook Air was
Apple's entry into ultra portable. It is just that the PC companies
went after small and cheap as a product and Apple went after small and
expensive but keeping computing power up. Again, Apple's core user
profile is a user that needs that power. I happen to not be one of
them. Oh, well, just my thoughts regarding the ongoing discussion.

Maybe this will stir the pot a bit . . . so I can just step back a
learn from all of you.

Dana

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