On 06-08-2000 08:51, Joel Watson wrote:
> At 12:44 AM -0400 8/6/00, Michael J. Hussmann wrote: Apple never intended to
> sell the rights. They would have _licensed_ the rights at most, only they were
> asking for too much -- maybe because they didn't really wanted to license the
> technology, but believed it to be bad PR to openly say so (keep in mind than
> virtually everything Apple said regarding the death of the Newton was just
> intended to make it look good, even if that meant being somewhat economic with
> the truth).
>
>> Also, as has been pointed out before, there's not much Apple could sell, even
>> if they wanted to. Without all the brilliant people who created Newton
>> technology, all they've got is a pile of backup tapes -- not worth buying, if
>> you ask me. The technologies that made the Newton such a unique product are
>> nothing secret; things like soups, the view system, system-wide services such
>> as search and assist etc. could easily be recreated without resorting to the
>> original source code.
>>
>> Finally, the Newton OS incorporates stuff like QuickDraw that Apple can't
>> sell (it's part of Mac OS, including Mac OS X, and QuickTime), and the
>> Rosetta recognizer that, some rumours claim, is going to be incorporated into
>> Mac OS, which is why it's not for sale. And then there's the cursive
>> recognizer that Apple can't sell either, because they don't own it.
>>
> Hmm... This explains a lot. However, if, as you say, it would be relatively
> easy to recreate the major portions of the NewtonOS that made it unique, why
> hasn't someone done it already? There is obviously demand for a *good* PDA. In
> other words, if someone could get a product similar in design to the Newton
> selling for around $400-$500 with an OS that worked at *least* as good as the
> NOS, then we're in business.
>
Yes, but there's also a huge demand for a cheap, mediocre PDA, And from a
(short term) business point of view, it makes more sense to produce a
mediocre product than to pour millions into the development of a great one.
This perhaps is part of what got Apple into trouble in the mid-nineties.
> By and large Palm is the largest/most popular PDA manufacturer around and
> their PDA's don't even include PCMCIA slots. Aside from that, there are tons
> of different models all selling for over $200 with only minor feature and
> design differentials as far as I can tell. The lineup reminds me of the whole
> Performa Apple nightmare.
>
Their lineup sure is wandering from the simplicity it once had... They
should consider going back to three models (IIIx, IIIc, Vx; or rather
Standard, Color, DeLuxe), instead of all the choices they now have.
> It doesn't seem like it would be too hard to oust Palm if someone just took
> the most basic principles from the Newton and put some time and effort into
> developing something. For instance, create a "Pro" model and a "Consumer"
> model. The former would have two PCMCIA slots and the latter would only have
> one. The Pro model would have more memory, the Consumer less, etc, etc. Sell
> the Consumer model in the $150-$250 price range and the Pro model in the
> $350-$500 price range. Add a cool case similar to the new Apple Optical mouse
> design (I love that new look!)...
>
Key word, however, is effort. Why do that if the products they have now are
selling like hotcakes? Let someone else spend the time and money to come up
with something entirely new and insanely great; then watch them die in the
marketplace when they try and sell their expensive gear to earn back the
development cost.
> I suppose I'm probably oversimplifying the amount of work this sort of project
> would take, but it seems as though this sort of project would be well worth
> it. Take a Newton MP2100 to show some executive somewhere that uses a Palm.
> Let him determine which is better (he would obviously choose the Newton). Then
> let him know that the Newton is three years old whereas his Palm is hot off
> the market. How hard could it be to convince them to give you some funding?
>
Quite hard. It would still be rather difficult to make a device as powerful
and versatile as the Newton and make it as small as the Palm. And size does
matter in the case of PDAs. Plus, Palm has the market already.
> It just seems a bit odd to me that a product so incredibly good could simply
> die, leaving the rest of the market to wallow in Palm mediocrity. If I had
> venture capital to come up with a product like this, I'd take the chance in a
> second. Perhaps three years ago there wasn't a huge market for Newton MP2100's
> at the pricepoint they were at then, but there certainly is a market for a PDA
> like that now and it seems as though the price could be brought down with a
> bit of work.
>
There's lots of times that mediocrity wins over good, thought-out products:
VHS vs. Beta, Windows vs. Mac OS/Amiga, MP3 vs. MiniDisc...
But, availability, price, marketing and market-penetration win out every
time.
> There are smart entrepreneurs out there. Where's the one that loves his Newton
> and sees the market for it?
>
I'm sure there's a market for the Newton; just look at the prices they're
selling for on eBay. But is that market big enough to sustain a business?
,xtG
..tsooJ
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