Re: [NTLK] newton sales figures?

From: Sushi (Sushi_at_ragingbull.com)
Date: Thu Feb 14 2002 - 18:50:04 EST


>On 2/15/02 @ 3:52, Ed Kummel wrote:
>
>That's a hell of a phone there...In the US, it's just
>a dream and will likely remain a dream for many years
>to come. 3G is nothing but a loss-leader in the
>cellphone industry. Ericcson and Motorola have both
>claimed massive losses (in the billions) and they
>estimate further losses (more billions) attributed
>JUST to 3G! Nokia is hedging their bets, but they
>claim to not see any profits in 3G for many years
>either!

Population density.

3G takes more equipment to perform.

In places like Japan in the Tokyo area, were the population density is
much greater, 3G is much more feasible.

Its getting more common to see folks in their 20's and 30's to just have
a cell phone instead of a regular phone. There are reasons for this
popularity here:

1. Getting a regular phone is expensive. Around $500 - $600 when I got
mine. NTT has a lock on the market.

2. Cost of making phone calls is expensive. Even local phone calls cost
about 200 yen (about $1.54 at today's exchange rates) per hour. Long
distance, as in a couple km away, cost is much more. It adds up quickly
-- especially when on line.

3. Cell phone access via PHS is cheap and fast. Usually you can get 64k
connection speeds.

4. By going with cell phone, you get the advantage of mobility at the
same time.

Cell phones are getting so popular, that NTT is now trying to compete to
keep from loosing customers. Their latest solution is to offer ADSL
without a phone line. I know, you are saying wait a minute how can that
be? You see, NTT is funny sometimes. A phone line is for talking, of
course. But they now also offer a data line. You cannot talk on it, so
it is really not a phone line per se. However, you can use ISDN or ADSL.
 The monthly cost is high, but you don't have to pay the high initial
cost.

Anyhow, getting back to topic, population density has a lot to do with
what they have over here from the train system to cell phones. To get an
idea, take the State of Nebraska. Divide it in to half. Now you have
the equivalent land area in Japan where people can live. For those that
haven't noticed, much of Japan is very mountainous and does not lend
itself to inhabitability.

Now take Japan's population of around 120 million and cram them into that
space. Now you can see why why 3G and other cool technologies can be
done over here. Where as in the states, there simply isn't the
population to support the costs. BTW, most of the population is
concentrated around the big cities, so it is even more densely packed in
those areas.

Having flown over Tokyo and New York at night, you can really see the
difference in population densities.

Installing fiber and copper land lines is expensive. In places like
China, it is much easier and cheaper to go direct to cell phone systems.

My guess is that the US will fall behind in cell phone technology for the
next 10 years. The US won't want to admit this. The US simply doesn't
have the population densities to support new cell phone technologies as
they currently exist.

By that time (10 years down the road), my bet is that we will see a whole
new satellite technology emerge that allows access from around the world
with one communication system (standard). Then you will see some really
cool stuff.

Sushi

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