> From: Sacha <sascha103_at_hetnet.nl>
> Date: Wed, 15 May 2002 18:37:54 +0200
Subject: Re: [NTLK] What would have happened to PDA market if Apple had wa
> ited?
>
> I believe that the Newton-platform woul'd have died sooner or later.
>
> The main problem is not the technology or the appretiation of the actual
> users but what the big mass of potential customers would like to have.
>
> Why did Palm became such a huge succes? Simply because of it's size! People
> want a small machine they can put in their shirt-pocket and with wich they
> can do all kind of nifty things, like....
>
> Yeah, like what? Agenda, to-do's, HWR, watching movies, listening to music,
> making phonecalls, handling e-mail, and about anything else one can
> imagine. The most important thing is: this thing HAS to be small, and has
> to have a color-screen, and stereo-sound, and voice-recognition! But above
> all, it has to be small.
Which is something I've always wondered about with the Newton. Sitting in a
meeting, writing notes on a MP2k screen (or even a 120 screen), I shudder at
what a human factors nightmare a palm-size Newton would have been.
Graffiti is a good match for the Palm since it limits all character inputs
to a small box. By comparison, NOS has use of the whole screen, but in
pre-defined fields. I'm not sure that the average person would ever be able
to enter, say,a phone number into a palm-sized Names card.
> So, most customer will buy one of these PDA-thingies because they are
> small. That is the only reason why Newtons, Psion's and all other
> medium-sized machines never sold as they where supposed. Even IF Newton's
> HWR would have been as good as it where marketed, people wouldn't have
> bought them because you "can not carry them in your shirt-pocket".
No, there is at least one (or more) other factors at work here besides size.
A Psion, for instance, is not significantly bigger when closed. Certainly,
it is pocketable. I think the more normal factors apply here:
- Initial cost/cost of usable configuration
- Availability of applications
- Availability of synchronization tools
The latter was probably the strongest initial argument for the Palm and is
very important to many people.
The need for synchronization tools probably marks the biggest split in the
various camps of PDA users. Some people live by their PDAs, having used them
to all but replace a desktop/laptop computer. Others, however, still see it
as an extension of some other system and still expect it to come home to the
mothership occasionally. (Trek fans- think of the difference between a
shuttlecraft and a runabout.)
> I personally think that one should use the right tool for the right
> purpose, but most people will still try to use a hammer to put a screw into
> a wall.
>
> From my own working experience I know that IT decisions are being taken
> like this: We have a certain problem, we have MS-SW in house, so to solve
> the problem we will stick to MS in any case. I do not want to bash MS-SW,
> not at all, but people should look at what the best tool to solve their
> problem is and use that instead of bending a tool to use for the wrong
> purpose (which BTW results often in unhappy customers blaming MS for their
> problem).
Which is why I sometimes find myself interacting with people building
military applications on Win2K using VB. :-(
> The one size (Newton-size) which actually would be usefull will not be
> bought because it's to big to be carried in their pocket!
Until MS convinces us that we all need to replace our laptops with tablets.
:-)
> (I personally never understood why I would need to take anything in any
> pocket! I even don't have my wallet in my trouserpocket because of the risk
> it being stolen. I always have my knapsack with me (No, not an ugly one,
> but a nice and above all praktical red one) where I carry all kind of
> things in, for one my Newton, wallet, cell-phone, magzines. And it's not
> that heavy altogether.)
Because, for some people, a knapsack/backpack/briefcase/purse/etc. still
does not fit the definition of travelling "light".
> I firmly believe that Steven Jobs was quite aware of this when the decision
> was made to cut of the Newton platform. I am absolutley sure that SJ is
> professional enough to make his decisions based on ratio, not emotion.
I tend to agree, but it still leaves the questions like why pull back/kill
Newton, Inc? And why not license the technology to one of the offerers at
the time? Clearly, there was more than money in this decision.
<<<john>>>
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