From: Pedro Hobbyfrazoo (pjfraser_at_mac.com)
Date: Sun Jan 26 2003 - 15:12:37 PST
well, of course no one would know - but we might be able to extrapolate
an estimated number.
i think this is an interesting exercise. let's have a little fun with
it.
this would be my process...
1. find the total production numbers for each type of newt
2. estimate % of these that went to corporate users, then estimate the
% of those that came back as surplus after use by those corporations
(witness the return of the 2000/2100s of this category last year)
3. similar to #2, estimate the % originally going to consumer end
users, then estimate the % attrition of those from then to now based
upon loss, damage, disinterest, etc.
4. weight the results of 2 and 3 by model type, that is, 2000/2100 are
somewhat more likely to still be in use than 130s, which are more
likely than 110s, etc.
5. adjust the assumptions based upon anecdotal evidence from our
listmembers (e.g., how often do you stumble upon newt users in your
everyday experience? when you do, is it always 2100s, or...?)
6. adjust the results based upon some assumption that this list
represents a certain % of total current users.
so, let's do that now, as an exercise. i have no facts whatsoever -
i'm just playing.
1. let's say 100,000 2000/2100s were produced. let's disregard the
2000 - 2100 upgrade for now.
2. of which 60% went to corporations, and of which 80% never made it
back into the mainstream channel (so that's 0.6x100,000 = 60,000, x0.2
= 12,000)
3. so then the remaining 40,000 new ones went to consumers, and let's
say maybe 20% of them are still in use (that's 0.2x40,000 = 8,000)
our total possible is now at 20,000
4. let's select a weight of .75 for the desirability of the big
2000/2100 series, which takes us to 15,000 possible
5. now it gets real subjective. in 6 years of newton use, i've seen
- one in use on the street
- many old 120s in use as data collectors at a macworld maybe 4 years
ago
- one in use on a plane (and we played Battleship via beam all the way
from SF to Atlanta, but that's a different story)
- two avid users in my hobby
- one at the latest macworld (but she may not count, since she's a list
member)
so what if i use that random impression to arbitrarily slash the number
by 50%?
if so, now we're at 7500.
6. almost 2000 of them are interested enough still to sign up for this
list, so looking at that (and maybe ignoring the non-2100/2000 members
of the list, just for this exercise) can we assume that 25% of all
worldwide newton users have found this list?
maybe!
(note: the Woos of this world skew these numbers completely. but we
already knew that...)
On Sunday, January 26, 2003, at 12:10 PM, Martin Joseph wrote:
>
>
> On Sunday, January 26, 2003, at 02:04 Hi!, Kuritex wrote:
>
>>
>> Hello Newtontalk,
>>
>> Maybe this is a sort of quite silly questions, but I'd surely like to
>> get it answered. So, how many Newton-users number today?..
>>
> How the heck would anyone know the answer to this?
>
> You were right it is a silly question :~}
> Marty
>
> --
> This is the NewtonTalk list - http://www.newtontalk.net/ for all
> inquiries
> List FAQ/Etiquette/Terms: http://www.newtontalk.net/faq.html
> Official Newton FAQ: http://www.chuma.org/newton/faq/
>
>
-- Peter
pjfraser_at_alamedanet.net
-- This is the NewtonTalk list - http://www.newtontalk.net/ for all inquiries List FAQ/Etiquette/Terms: http://www.newtontalk.net/faq.html Official Newton FAQ: http://www.chuma.org/newton/faq/
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