Re: [NTLK] [OT] Concerning Apple's Switch to Intel Chips...

From: Martin Joseph (
Date: Tue Jun 14 2005 - 12:20:11 PDT

On Jun 14, 2005, at 11:10 AM, Joost van de Griek wrote:

> On 2005-06-14 19:14, Martin Joseph wrote:
>> On Jun 13, 2005, at 11:12 PM, Joost van de Griek wrote:
>>> CPU's shipped: 1,046,000
>>> Revenues on CPU's: $1,605,000,000
>>> Software revenues: $213,000,000
>> True, but the profit margin on software is SO much higher then on
>> hardware.
> Is it? I know that a lot of people take that sort of statement at face
> value, but don't programmers have to pay food and rent, too? I'd like
> to see
> something to back those assumptions up.
They aren't assumptions they are facts. Think of it this way. Apple
NEEDS to keep the lights on and the programers working in order to have
the OSX for there own boxes to sell. This is a given cost of there
existing business.

Assuming (big assuming) that people with generic boxes figure out how
to install OSX for intel, now these people, some of whom will pay
$129, are gravy. There is NO ADDITIONAL COST to Apple for
development. The only cost is the box, the DVD and the crappy useless
paper manual they provide. This is close to nothing in dollar value.
>> Once you examine the possibility of of multiplying your existing
>> available OS
>> install base by a factor of 20, while continuing to sell hardware
>> mind you...
> What makes you think Apple's market share would rise to those kinds of
> numbers?
I don't think that at all. That is only the AVAILABLE market. they
MIGHT get 2 percent of that. Still a huge number.
> They'd have to charge significantly more for Mac OS X if it wasn't
> tied to the hardware,
NOT AT ALL. This is bad assumption (see above).
> and how many people are willing to shell out for an OS
> if they got one with their machine "for free"?
This is very true, but many of the hacker types that will try this
will be white box buyers who don't buy MS licenses anyhow.
>> Look at microsofts top line revenue versus there profits. Scary stuff.
> Indeed, and I think Apple agree that it's scary stuff. You want to
> stay away
> from those guys, they can kill you.
They are dangerous, no doubt, and Office for mac is clearly a HUGE
weapon and a big problem with my theory. Still Office for Mac 2004 will
run via Rosetta (heh). I suppose Apple will delay taking the gloves
off until MS has an intel native version for mac...
> They'll do crazy stuff like axe MS
> Office for Mac and that'll destroy any hope of capturing the enterprise
> market anytime soon.
Ouch, that is a problem :~) Still MS will try to make money the best
way they can. If a percentage of windows boxes migrate to OSX this
will be quite a question.
>> I agree that this isn't a change that could happen overnight. Still
>> if the
>> migration to Intel goes well, there are some very interesting
>> possibilities. A
>> direct competitor for windows would be a good thing.
> For consumers, yes. For the company that makes it, I'm not so sure.
> OS/2 was
> a direct competitor to Windows.
Developed by microsoft.
> It was arguably better than Windows in many
> ways, it had IBM backing it, none of it helped.
IBM has proven to be completely brain dead in any area involving PC's.
They denied PC's were even real computers throughout the late
seventies, and then sold a behind the times box they bought from
someone else as there PC. Now they say the PC is dead and got out of
that business.
> It's all but dead. That
> could well be Mac OS X's fate if Apple went head-to-head with
> Microsoft on
> the PC platform. Only, unlike IBM, Apple probably wouldn't survive.
That is a possible scenario, and a sad one it would be. Still OSX
seems to be pulling in many developers every day now, and the software
is flowing.

Lets not forget, it's really all about the software. Apple can build
nicer Intel boxes then anyone, and most people really don't care what
CPU is inside. If the computer works better, that's a good story to
sell. Especially if MS's security woes continue.

In any event it will be interesting to see what unfolds...

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