Re: [NTLK] New Palm Device (flop?)

> I think it is much funnier (and more useful) than that. Anyone
> remember the Microsoft attempt at this? Bonsai, or UMPC (Ultra Mobile
> PC), was originally aimed at being smaller than a laptop, feeling
> like a good PC, and costing less than $499.

The codename for the UMPC was Origami. (Personally, I think they
should have stuck with that. UMPC is soulless in comparison.) The
original goal was "as little as $600." Of course, they didn't hit
this goal either. The closest I can think of right now are the
Samsung Q1B around $1000 and the Raon Digital Vega around $800.

What I find amusing is that we seem to be on a 10 year cycle. i.e.,
approximately every 10 years, someone makes a push in the VHS tape
form factor. Most of the UMPCs are in the VHS tape form factor.
(Exceptions are the OQO machines, the Raon Digital Vega and possibly
the Sony UX machines. The first two are about the size of a moleskine
pocket notebook.) About 10 years ago, we had the Newton. About 10
years before that, we had the Atari Portfolio. About 10 years before
that, we had the Radio Shack/Sharp Pocket Computers. (To be fair, the
third iteration of the pocket computer did realistically fit in a
shirt pocket. Also, all three iterations were smaller than VHS tapes.)

However, the previous iterations in this form factor had decent
battery life. Current UMPCs test out to at best two hours or so.
(Keep in mind though that battery life tests are also more punishing
than they used to be. I don't think I would play any video on a
machine in the moleskine notebook form factor.) They were also all
cheaper than UMPCs typically cost now. (I haven't adjusted for
inflation.) The UMPC isn't dead yet. Never underestimate Microsoft's
ability to keep a platform alive. Not only are Tablet PCs still
around, but there are people constantly clamoring for Apple to join
the market. (ModBook doesn't count. I said for *Apple* to join the
market.)

On those grounds, the Folio might find its niche if it lives up to
its claimed 5 hour battery life and it's projected $600 ($500 with
rebate) price. However, it will only appeal to people who recognize
that they spend the majority of their time running power unintensive
office applications. (This appears to be not many people, given the
number of videos on the web showing how the OQO deals with playing
movies and video games.) Also, it has relatively little built in long
term storage. (256MB of flash, which by modern day standards, if it's
your only storage, is not very much. I think it also supports SD or
CF.) Data is supposed to be on the smartphone. Their stated design
goal is to provide a large screen and fullsize keyboard for your
smartphone. It looks like a subnotebook, but it's intended to be a
portable smart terminal. There's a flash video at the Palm website
where Jeff Hawkins talks about how the Foleo will make your
smartphone your primary PC.

The killer machine would be an actual subnotebook at $600 and a 5
hour battery life. I don't see anything yet that makes me think the
Foleo is supposed to be an actual subnotebook.

(Incidentally, if the pictures at the website are anywhere near
accurate, I wouldn't expect a touchscreen. The way they've drawn the
hinge, the screen can't swivel. This would make a touchscreen
frustrating to use. Again, their intent is not for you to use this by
itself, but to use it with your smartphone to provide a large screen
and keyboard when you need it. It's supposed to turn your smartphone
into a laptop, not be a laptop unto itself. However, it doesn't mean
that people will use it that way.)

I don't find it very appealing. But there may be people who think,
"All I need is a large screen and full keyboard for my smartphone
every once in a while and my computing needs are set." Time will tell
if this is a large segment of the market or not. If I had to guess,
I'd say that because it looks like a laptop, people will expect it to
do laptop-like things. If it doesn't people will be disappointed.

My position is similar to Scott Rogers's position. What I'd really
like is an electronic moleskine pocket notebook which can also deal
with the stuff I do the other 10% of the time. My MP2000U is the
closest I've come so far. It's a terrific notebook, has great battery
life, but, for me, it's a bit large, and it doesn't deal with the
stuff I do the other 10% of the time.

The OQO Model 02 is almost exactly moleskine pocket notebook size in
area. (It's about twice as thick.) So it fits in my pocket. If I use
ritePen, the handwriting recognition is usable, although the
correction process is not as good as in NewtonOS. It can do all the
stuff I'd need to do with it. However, battery life isn't very good
and it's expensive. ($1800? Yikes.) But double the battery life and
halve the price and I would live with the somewhat subpar (compared
to NewtonOS) handwriting experience. (I'd also think about it if ever
I'm in the market for another laptop.)

There is potential in the Newton and sub-Newton form factors. That's
why we keep trying it out every 10 years. I think it may succeed this
time simply because Microsoft may keep pushing it until it's worked
out all its kinks. Atari more or less went out of business, so who
knows how the Portfolio might have done. Apple dropped the Newton
just as they'd worked out the handwriting recognition issues.
However, given how persistent Microsoft has been with the Tablet PC,
I can see them flogging UMPCs until they're cheap enough and have
enough battery life to sell themselves.

(This, of course, doesn't answer how many people will buy a smart
terminal for their cell phone.)

                                                john

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