NewtonTalk.net September 2009 archive: Re: [NTLK] No iNewton ann

From: Ryan Vetter <physicalconstants_at_yahoo.ca>
Date: Fri Sep 11 2009 - 18:41:31 EDT

Let's get down to the reality of this:

RE: The Coming of Tablets

While explored in more detail in my book coming out, there is currently a major breakpoint in computing paradigms: that of traditional mouse and keyboard with screen, and the other with the keyboard and mouse rolled up into the screen in the form of multi-touch. It may seem subtle to most people because they have been slowly indoctrinated into it, but it is a marked change in computing paradigms.

And what makes multi-touch tablets/smartphones so good for the information age is that it is much better than a traditional computer for navigating and ingesting knowledge/information.

When computers began, they were very well suited for the age of productivity. A mouse and keyboard with a bitmap screen. Anybody could produce their own newspaper, create graphics, craft articles... that was the 80s. Once the 90s hit, computers and consumers met with great force. But with the Newton, it was putting the cart before the horse. Many people in the early 90s, the time the Newton was released, did not have a computer at home. And people were just starting to understand the purpose of computers. The Newton was really something for vertical markets, like those consultants kept telling Apple before they launched the Newton in 1993. Apple didn't listen, but the consultants were right - I know, rare.

Once the Internet hit full speed in and around 1996/1997, computer sales took off until finally many people owned a computer. The years that followed showed a rise of mobile desktops: laptops. Students, businessmen, etc. were in the target market for laptops, but not everyone. While this indoctrination into mobile computing and the Internet was happening, Palm exploded on the scene with the Palm Pilot in refined form. Those were then bought up by students and businessmen alike. For the next 4-5 years, people were adopting Palm Pilots and laptops more and more, until such time as cell phones and PDAs became one (The Palm Treo, 2004), and some computer companies' laptop sales were significantly exceeding their desktop sales. Even they were surprised that their laptop sales were exploding in such a short period of time. It was official: people were adopting the mobile computing paradigm in vast numbers.

Since 2004, we have all been further indoctrinated into and accustomed to sophisticated, all in one PDAs/cell phones (smartphones), a multi-media rich, powerful Internet and laptop computing. We have now reached a point where we are beginning to understand more about our place in the information age, and how important it is for all of our success to keep up with all of the news and change that is happening.

While laptops are good for things associated with the age of productivity, they are not so good for some of those key things that are associated with the information age. Namely, reading/knowledge acquisition and entertainment. So there are two different things we are using our computers for like never before. One for productivity, and the other to ingest information and entertain ourselves. Youtube, iTunes LP, RSS feeds, Wikipedia, eBooks, etc. A tablet is much better suited for these tasks than a laptop, especially when you factor in things like easy copy and paste (iPhone), predictive text entry in Google's search field, Cover Flow for multi-touch in Safari, etc. Not forgetting about vertical markets, where Doctors are now using the Touch and even the iPhone for things at work.

And one interesting thing about it is that it is markedly faster to use multi-touch whilst doing these things than having to use a keyboard and mouse. In fact, when the two computing paradigms are placed side by side during these tasks, a laptop is archaic in comparison.

So what I am saying is, both laptops and tablets have their place in the information age, and each does a set of tasks better than the other, but tablets certainly have a place now, after all of the evolution and indoctrination that has happened during the last 30 years. All of that had to happened though, before people would understand how to use them, and for computer manufacturers to understand how to make them, what services to provide, etc. Before this point, we were not ready. Like Steve Jobs said in an interview, people don't want to drive with a joystick, they want to keep using a steering wheel... that we have to be careful how much we jump from one thing to another because it has to be a slow progression. Well, that progression has happened, and tablets are just around the corner.

Additionally, eReaders are opening people up to the idea of tablet computers even more. And what is incredible is that I can sign out and read books on my eReader from my local public library no matter where I am in the world. People across North America have the ability to do this. That is a powerful device to have at your fingertips, and it fits in well with the advancing information age. I can't imagine having to read those books on my laptop instead of on my tablet eReader. The laptop is simply the wrong device for it.

When you factor in other things like increased, real, environmental awareness (i.e. saving paper), and things like the App Store to transform your tablet into virtually anything, an Apple tablet will take off immensely. And Apple knows it.

----- Original Message ----
From: Phil Muller <wndrstrck@gmail.com>
To: newtontalk@newtontalk.net
Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 1:30:38 PM
Subject: Re: [NTLK] No iNewton announced today

Well I am quite surprised nobody has touched on the fact the the current
business model for developers of consumers electronics is to somehow offer a
device that will provide residual earnings without investment. Apple App
Store earns 2.4 billion a year as of August 2009, Android Marketplace
already up to 60 Million. With further indoctrination to this type of
consumerism, people buying more apps, and new handsets being purchased,
these numbers will move every quickly skyward.
Phil Muller

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