Re: [NTLK] [OT] Apple, Macintosh, 3rd Parties, and Market Share

From: Jon Glass (jonglass_at_usa.net)
Date: Sat Apr 24 2004 - 12:39:08 PDT


on 4/24/04 12:53 PM, Joel M. Sciamma at joel_at_inventors-emporium.co.uk wrote:

> When I saw Mac OS X public beta for the first time I woke up from my
> complacent pro-Apple position.

> But perhaps this is what you want Apple to be - a small volume producer of
> computers designed by programmers for programmers and the rest of the world
> go hang.

Personally, I would have to say that when the beta of X came out, I thought
the same thing. I saw Apple flushing down the toilet. In fact, I refused to
upgrade to X because of all I had read of it of it, and my friends'
experience with it. I didn't upgrade until Jaguar. However, after upgrading
at that point, I began to see the beauty of X. X is much more than just for
programmers. It is an essential change to the Mac OS. It is comparable to
the change in Windows with XP, only more drastic. However, it is an
essential change for the Mac to move forward. It is clear that the old
system architecture was incapable of carrying Apple into the 21st century.
X, as it is now, especially in Panther, is a very solid beginning....

What people fail to realize or think about is the Apple's mainstay markets
in the past are markets that are very slow to change--publishing and
education. They upgrade far less often--in the first case, because once
something works in a work flow, it is too complicated and expensive to
change. In the second, because of budget restraints.

True, in recent years, while Apple was transitioning to the PowerMac, and
before X stabilized, Apple has had problems maintaining these mainstay
customers.... However, I wonder how long those who have switched to Windows
will stay in Windows, once they discover the "benefits" of the cost
effectiveness of Windows. These companies must, at some point, upgrade their
hardware. I wonder if they will _continue_ with Windows? We must not forget
that any switch away from Mac need not be permanent. Not only that, but new
markets are opening up to the Mac, such as video editing, audio also seems
to be renewing on the Mac. There is also that whole open source, programming
element that you seem to despise. They have opened a whole new world of
goodies to the Mac. I'm amazed at what I've been able to find. This is
opening a whole new market as well... The fact is that there is a lot of
enthusiasm in the Mac world today. It may not be in the traditional areas of
Mac's prior successes, but while it may be true, we cannot presume it is
permanent. It may be.... However, the jury is still out. One also cannot
forget the Xserve. I think it is only beginning to be appreciated by its
target market....

On to market share. Again, raw numbers do not always tell the whole story.
What if Adobe is getting merely 25% of its profits from Mac software? What
if that 25% is a greater dollar amount than 4 or 5 years ago? This has not
been stated... However, it is know that while Apple's percentage has dropped
annually, its annual sales have increased overall... The drop in sales of
iMacs, in my mind, show more a change in demographics. Apple is not the only
manufacturer to see drops in desktop sales... I believe all manufacturers
have. Powerbooks seem to be where the future lies, and in the gadgets like
the iPod. Markets are definitely changing. The question is, will Apple
survive these market changes? Looking back at past successes, and expecting
Apple to continue to see success with the same formula would be a mistake.
It is a mistake I fear you are making. However, this does not mean that
Apple isn't (to quote a famous personage) "standing on the edge of a knife."
I believe that Jobs has a longer term strategy in place, and is working on
it. It is now obvious to me that this plan existed even before the first
iMac. I am curious to see what comes of it. Microsoft is also standing on
the edge of a knife. Their hold on the market is very tenuous. Will Apple
open up to licensing when the Microsoft tower starts to fall? Worse, will
Apple become the next Microsoft? No, Apple's story is not over yet--not by a
long shot!

-- 
-Jon Glass
Krakow, Poland
<mailto:jonglass_at_usa.net>
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety
deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin
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