From: Rick Ludwig (bensisko_at_mac.com)
Date: Fri Feb 13 2004 - 19:20:37 PST
Okay, let's review:
YES - The PDA market is stagnant. Sales are dropping (closer to the
same reason the desktop market is sagging, most "average" PDA owners
have a device that suits them just fine and since 'basic' models don't
have a planned obsolesce built in, there's no reason to upgrade).
YES - Steve said no PDAs or phones, etc. But how many times has Apple
said one thing then done another?
YES - It would be a perfect time for Apple to storm the market with
some miracle device that does video communication, plays movies, and
makes toast (catch the pun?).
YES - It is a fact that Palm has been loosing market share to
Microsoft. Even PalmOne realizes this (they announced that they are
considering developing hardware for other platforms). Could Palm go the
way of the Newton? Even if Palm closed it's doors today (pretty
unlikely even if OS 6 bombs), support would carry on for Palm and we
would probably see a larger devoted following than we see with the
Newton. However, PalmSource is in no real danger of going out of
business.
MAYBE - Apple has people working on it. We don't know. It would be
pretty stupid to at least not say they don't have anybody 'keeping an
eye on it.'
MAYBE - Support for Macs has dropped from PalmSource, but it's very
possible that PalmOne will develop (or at least package) a mac
compatible system (perhaps a joint venture with Apple and iSync? Yay!
Another unfounded rumor!)
NO - There is not any hard evidence Apple is working on something like
this. There's not even any evidence that Apple is thinking about this.
With all the rumors in the past couple years, you'd like to think it's
something that they are at least thinking about, but there's no hard
evidence. When in doubt, take Steve's word "No PDAs or smartphones"
NO - This does not mean Apple is in trouble that they have 'lost' Palm
as a 3rd party. It makes PalmSource stupid is all, especially to
announce it early before you even have a product. They are really just
trying to stick it to Apple (Bad move Palm, it's a huge user base, too
bad you can't see that. Market Share is nothing, would it not be worth
a few hundred thousand sales to take a week and port your sync system?
Is there THAT Technical of an issue here??)
NO - I seriously doubt HP will market an iPaq that will include
software (even The Missing Sync) that will allow it to sync with OS X.
Even though this could potentially be a smart move for HP (and
excellent exposure for Missing Sync author), I doubt it would generate
enough revenue from Mac users to be worth it. (Perhaps a new iPaq using
a Linux OS in the future...depending on how long HP wants to make good
with MS in the handheld space. The iPaq is, after all, still MS's
darling and flagship for PPC.)
NO - Unfortunately this will not be the last we hear of rumors of an
Apple PDA. Ever since the cancellation of the Newton, media pundits and
rumor sites have taken on a sort of a cause to 'force' apple to release
a new PDA, with no apparent success. We will continue to see many, many
articles, blurbs and posts about this, along with fewer pictures
(faked, but realistic enough to not notice glaring errors on the first
pass), and even more rare, but all the more intriguing, those who
produce movies based on new hardware (like the iWalk movies that
appeared just before the release of the iPod).
The sad truth for those hoping for a new Apple PDA is that its not
coming. Despite many good entry points over the years, Apple has
decided not to enter the market.
Fortunately, we all still have an option, probably the best option, our
little green friends, the Newton.
-Rick
-- This is the NewtonTalk list - http://www.newtontalk.net/ for all inquiries List FAQ/Etiquette/Terms: http://www.newtontalk.net/faq.html Official Newton FAQ: http://www.chuma.org/newton/faq/
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